One of the more intriguing Week One matchups in college football will take place in Houston between the LSU Tigers and the Wisconsin Badgers. LSU is coming off a 10-3 year with an Outback Bowl victory over Iowa while the Badgers finished 9-4 last season falling to South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl. Both the AP and USA Today Polls have LSU ranked #13 and Wisconsin ranked #14. Additionally, most sportsbooks have LSU favored between 4 and 5 points so many are expecting this to be a close game. But when I look at this game I see a huge mismatch that makes a recipe for a blowout.
Wisconsin always has a strong running game and this year will be no different. The Badgers averaged 6.6 yards per carry last season, while running back Melvin Gordon had an average of 7.8. But one thing the Badgers do not have coming into this season that they had last season is a decent threat of a passing game. Wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is now gone. He accounted for 1,081 of Wisconsin's 2,531 receiving yards. Tight End Jacob Pedersen, who is also gone, had the second most yards at just 551. There basically was no #2 man for the Badgers last year and now they don't even have a #1. And it won't matter who Head Coach Gary Andersen decides to name the starter at quarterback because they don't have a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning type option that can make good receivers out of no-names. The starting quarterback from last year Joel Stave was very inconsistent at times and that was with Abbrederis in the receiving corps. Now with the ONE receiver they had gone who was constantly double teamed, the Badgers will be in trouble when it gets third and long.
Wisconsin cannot get away with just running the ball. LSU has a solid defensive front seven, the bulk of whom are returning from last season where they started improving down the stretch even holding the Manziel led Aggies to just 75 yards rushing. The Badgers can run all over the Purdues and Tennessee Techs of the world, but they'll be facing a top notch SEC caliber defense in LSU and will eventually get into those aforementioned third and long situations especially since LSU can play the run more knowing Wisconsin lacks a passing game.
On the flip side, LSU loses a lot of players at the skill positions on offense but have several five star recruits ready to step in and pick up where they left off including running back Leonard Fournette and wide receiver Malachi Dupre both of whom are considered by many to be the best at their position in this past year's recruiting class. Additionally the Badgers only return 3 starters from their solid defense from a year ago with very few apparent stars ready to step up to replace the significant losses. The Badgers defense is no where near where it was a year ago and will have trouble against an LSU team that is on a whole nother level.
The Badgers may keep it close for a while but LSU will eventually pull away the more Wisconsin is forced to throw. If this game were played at the end of the year once Wisconsin's inexperienced defense has grown and the offense develops somewhat of a passing game it would be a little closer.
But heading into Week One LSU is in much better shape as the Badgers will be rebuilding and the Tigers just reloaded.
Your First Free Play of the Football Season from Jeff Taylor Consulting Service is on LSU -4!!!
